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Sochaux 1–0 Caen

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Apr 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win42%2.30
Draw32%3.01
Caen win25%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen −0.2550%1.95
Sochaux −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.71

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Caen
20'🟨Bryan Soumaré · Sochaux
35'🟨Prince Oniangué · Caen
64'⚽ (pen)Chris Bedia · Sochaux
78'🟨Salem M'Bakata · Sochaux
79'🟨Jonathan Rivierez · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
5On target2
5Corners7
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.140.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.440.57
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days875.00571.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.430.37
elo1496.041401.00
elo momentum (last 5)-7.96-17.69
eye test v1-0.91-0.67
eye trend v1-0.56-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)58.2059.40
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.820.72
league points51.0038.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win4.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2075.20
possession avg (last 5)54.2041.00
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.250.16
season ppg1.421.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-5.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.608.20
skill v10.80-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)1.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.80
squad age26.8726.95
state index-0.41-1.30
sterile dominance v11.13-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.140.20
threat rate (last 5)0.160.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20