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Guingamp 0–0 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Apr 24, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win38%2.57
Draw32%3.03
Guingamp win30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp +0.2555%1.77
Paris FC +0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.63
Over40%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨Sikou Niakaté · Guingamp
66'🟨Gaëtan Belaud · Paris FC
75'🟨Ronny Rodelin · Guingamp
78'🟨Ousmane Kanté · Paris FC
79'🟨Lebogang Phiri · Guingamp
89'🟨Jacques-Alaixys Romao · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots11
0On target3
5Corners7
16Fouls7
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.72
cards avg (last 5)1.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days82.00479.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.500.61
elo1455.081523.10
elo momentum (last 5)12.241.63
eye test v1-0.430.65
eye trend v10.07-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)61.1062.90
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.75—
league points37.0057.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6081.80
possession avg (last 5)42.6051.40
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.210.20
season ppg1.031.58
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.204.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.4013.40
skill v1-0.850.57
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
squad age28.0328.86
state index-0.13-0.02
sterile dominance v1-0.470.01
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.80