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Caen 1–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 · Tue, Apr 20, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win40%2.45
Draw32%3.00
Dunkerque win27%3.59

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque −0.2552%1.85
Caen −0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.49
Over36%2.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Jessy Deminguet · Caen
46'🟨Yoann Court · Caen
60'🟨Steeve Yago · Caen
63'🟨Guillaume Bosca · Dunkerque
66'🟨Jessy Deminguet · Caen
69'🟨Kevin Mbala · Caen
84'🟨Andreas Hountondji · Caen
88'🟥Rémy Riou · Caen
88'⚽ (pen)Emeric Dudouit · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots11
1On target4
3Corners4
23Fouls13
5Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.54
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days567.00354.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.641.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.420.49
elo1401.651438.98
elo momentum (last 5)-17.751.37
eye test v10.01-0.39
eye trend v10.020.50
first sub minute (last 10)59.3060.00
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.74—
league points37.0036.00
league rank18.0019.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet9.003.00
matches since win9.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6075.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4046.00
rest days3.213.00
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.061.09
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8010.80
skill v10.02-0.39
sot against avg (last 5)5.802.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age24.8828.45
state index-1.06-0.23
sterile dominance v10.18-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.28
threat rate (last 5)0.210.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00