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AJ Auxerre 3–2 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Apr 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win52%1.88
Draw27%3.74
Nancy win21%4.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre −0.553%1.83
Nancy −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.89
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Aurelien Scheidler · Nancy
19'⚽Gautier Lloris · AJ Auxerre
41'⚽Jubal · AJ Auxerre
48'🟨Ogou Akichi · Nancy
52'🟨Jubal · AJ Auxerre
58'🟨Abdelhamid El Kaoutari · Nancy
65'🟨Carlens Arcus · AJ Auxerre
71'⚽Ernest Seka · Nancy
84'⚽Alexandre Coeff · AJ Auxerre

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
23Shots7
8On target3
8Corners3
13Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.520.66
cards avg (last 5)1.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé Deschamps
coach days656.00656.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.22
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.102.22
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.06
dominance (last 5)0.480.34
elo1523.911513.56
elo momentum (last 5)12.5054.99
eye test v1-0.10-0.42
eye trend v10.37-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)60.0057.90
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.84—
league points54.0044.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2075.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8038.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg1.591.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-6.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.206.80
skill v10.72-0.92
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
squad age28.2424.40
state index0.260.50
sterile dominance v10.65-0.34
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.40