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Clermont 1–1 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Apr 17, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win63%1.53
Draw26%3.98
Le Havre AC win12%9.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC −150%1.93
Clermont −150%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Jamal Thiaré · Le Havre AC
36'🟨Woyo Coulibaly · Le Havre AC
44'🟥Alidu Seidu · Clermont
72'⚽Jordan Tell · Clermont
77'🟨Salis Abdul Samed · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots12
4On target5
3Corners3
10Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.63
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days3212.00656.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.461.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.10
dominance (last 5)0.680.44
elo1615.041455.67
elo momentum (last 5)-8.10-12.22
eye test v10.28-0.06
eye trend v1-0.22-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)64.3057.30
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.750.63
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.20
keeper form v10.710.74
league points62.0039.00
league rank3.0013.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)60.6042.80
rest days2.836.79
scorer concentration0.330.19
season ppg1.821.18
shot diff avg (last 5)8.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)15.6011.40
skill v11.33-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)1.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age27.5528.30
state index0.79-0.39
sterile dominance v10.75-0.63
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.260.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60