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Chateauroux 1–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Apr 10, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Benjamin Lepaysant, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux win44%2.20
Draw30%3.25
Dunkerque win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux βˆ’0.2552%1.88
Dunkerque βˆ’0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.74
Over45%2.17

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Jeremy Huysman · Dunkerque
20'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
24'⚽Romain Grange · Chateauroux
50'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Dunkerque
69'🟨Cheick Diarra · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots10
1On target4
6Corners4
18Fouls22
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.51
cards avg (last 5)2.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gaston Petit
coach days40.00344.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.09
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.161.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.11
dominance (last 5)0.570.50
elo1341.711428.48
elo momentum (last 5)-9.41-8.94
eye test v1-0.18-0.48
eye trend v10.05-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)54.6060.70
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.330.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
keeper form v10.55β€”
league points21.0032.00
league rank21.0017.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win8.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)59.0048.40
rest days7.0020.96
scorer concentration0.120.29
season ppg0.661.03
shot diff avg (last 5)2.800.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.8011.20
skill v11.150.03
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.40
squad age25.9727.20
state index-0.96-0.40
sterile dominance v10.940.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.19
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40