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Clermont 0–0 Niort

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Apr 3, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Arnaud Baert, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win74%1.30
Draw18%5.50
Niort win8%12.00

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort βˆ’1.550%1.94
Clermont βˆ’1.550%1.94

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Niort
35'🟨Akim Zedadka · Clermont
41'🟨Yacine Bourhane · Niort
76'🟨Olivier Kemen · Niort
90'🟨Pape Ibnou Ba · Niort

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots7
4On target0
11Corners0
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.660.56
cards avg (last 5)1.202.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days3198.00306.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.13
corner diff avg (last 5)3.20-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.601.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.11
dominance (last 5)0.740.39
elo1624.541391.38
elo momentum (last 5)27.163.66
eye test v11.22-0.90
eye trend v1-0.070.23
first sub minute (last 10)64.7055.20
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.600.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v1β€”0.67
league points58.0037.00
league rank2.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)87.6069.80
possession avg (last 5)61.8043.40
rest days13.9613.96
scorer concentration0.340.41
season ppg1.871.19
shot diff avg (last 5)10.80-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.608.20
skill v11.79-1.06
sot against avg (last 5)1.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.902.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.602.60
squad age27.7924.44
state index1.40-0.54
sterile dominance v10.89-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.290.19
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.19
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60