⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Toulouse FC 4–1 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win57%1.69
Draw26%3.75
Nancy win17%5.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC −0.7551%1.92
Nancy −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Ruben Gabrielsen · Toulouse FC
32'⚽ (og)Saliou Ciss · Toulouse FC
36'🟨Rhys Healey · Toulouse FC
43'⚽Amine Bassi · Nancy
47'⚽Janis Antiste · Toulouse FC
50'⚽Ruben Gabrielsen · Toulouse FC
62'⚽Amine Adli · Toulouse FC
77'🟨Vinni Triboulet · Nancy
82'🟨Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots5
6On target2
4Corners7
17Fouls24
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToulouse FCNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.590.72
cards avg (last 5)1.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStadium de Toulouse
coach days306.00642.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.26
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.442.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.570.42
elo1554.571528.73
elo momentum (last 5)-17.8294.62
eye test v10.18-0.37
eye trend v1-0.140.29
first sub minute (last 10)61.4056.30
form points (last 5)6.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.403.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.75
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.740.64
league points57.0043.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank0.0011.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0071.20
possession avg (last 5)58.8036.20
rest days13.7513.75
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg1.781.34
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.20
skill v10.62-1.40
sot against avg (last 5)1.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
squad age25.7926.93
state index0.441.17
sterile dominance v10.54-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.60