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Dunkerque 1–1 Chambly Thelle FC

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Feb 27, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win41%2.39
Draw31%3.10
Chambly Thelle FC win28%3.47

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC βˆ’0.2552%1.88
Dunkerque βˆ’0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.62
Over41%2.38

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Lorenzo Callegari · Chambly Thelle FC
52'⚽Cheick Diarra · Dunkerque
62'⚽Guillaume Dequaire · Chambly Thelle FC
81'🟨Joris Correa · Chambly Thelle FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots7
7On target4
5Corners2
11Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueChambly Thelle FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.440.42
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
3.40
coach days302.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.402.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.343.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.19
dominance (last 5)0.520.32
elo1440.481397.99
elo momentum (last 5)-17.56-39.61
eye test v1-0.78-1.35
eye trend v10.23-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.8054.60
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.55
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.65β€”
league points28.0024.00
league rank17.0019.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win5.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0072.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0043.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.040.89
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-8.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.406.80
skill v10.03-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.502.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.00
squad age27.2129.02
state index-0.48-1.23
sterile dominance v10.270.19
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.16
threat rate (last 5)0.210.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80