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Chateauroux 4–0 Chambly Thelle FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Tue, Feb 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Arnaud Baert, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux win37%2.60
Chambly Thelle FC win31%3.12
Draw31%3.13

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux +055%1.75
Chambly Thelle FC +045%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

44'🟥Maxence Derrien · Chambly Thelle FC
47'🟨Remi Mulumba · Chateauroux
52'🟨Prince Ibara · Chateauroux
54'🟨Adrien Pinot · Chambly Thelle FC
55'⚽ (pen)Romain Grange · Chateauroux
67'🟨Heinry Guillaume · Chambly Thelle FC
72'⚽Siriné Doucouré · Chateauroux
85'⚽Yanis Merdji · Chateauroux
88'⚽Siriné Doucouré · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
21Shots5
10On target0
12Corners1
19Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxChambly Thelle FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.450.59
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston Petit
2.00
coach days32.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.300.14
dominance (last 5)0.540.55
elo1340.691451.14
elo momentum (last 5)-22.667.43
eye test v1-0.75-0.33
eye trend v10.33-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)60.8055.30
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.67
league points14.0024.00
league rank21.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet17.006.00
matches since win12.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)44.0052.20
rest days3.043.04
scorer concentration0.180.26
season ppg0.611.04
shot diff avg (last 5)1.401.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.2011.80
skill v1-1.03-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.60
squad age23.5128.61
state index-1.53-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.660.12
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.20
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.201.20