← Ligue 2 2020 · Tue, Feb 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Gael Angoula, France
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 41% | 2.45 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 |
| Valenciennes win | 28% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Caen −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Moussa Guel · Valenciennes |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jessy Deminguet · Caen |
| 34' | 🟨 | Théo Pellenard · Valenciennes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Maxime Spano · Valenciennes |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Yacine Bammou · Caen |
| 65' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Ntim · Valenciennes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ismael Doukouré · Valenciennes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 26 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 490.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1450.12 | 1510.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.65 | 21.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.04 | 3.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 26.52 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |