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Chambly Thelle FC 4–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Jan 30, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC win37%2.64
Caen win33%3.00
Draw31%3.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC +053%1.83
Caen +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Caleb Zady Sery · Caen
25'⚽Joachim Eickmayer · Chambly Thelle FC
27'⚽Bastian Badu · Chambly Thelle FC
32'🟥Nicholas Gioacchini · Caen
39'🟨Anthony Soubervie · Chambly Thelle FC
52'🟨Lassana Doucoure · Chambly Thelle FC
60'⚽ (pen)Medhy Guezoui · Chambly Thelle FC
67'⚽Lassana Doucoure · Chambly Thelle FC
85'🟨Anthony Soubervie · Chambly Thelle FC
85'🟥Anthony Soubervie · Chambly Thelle FC
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
7Shots17
5On target6
0Corners4
11Fouls8
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChambly Thelle FCCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Marais
⚽
Jessy Deminguet · Caen
coach days—487.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.171.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.15
dominance (last 5)0.610.37
elo1437.601463.66
elo momentum (last 5)-5.37-42.75
eye test v1-0.27-0.38
eye trend v10.100.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.9053.90
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.700.75
league points21.0029.00
league rank18.0010.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4080.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6052.00
rest days3.007.00
scorer concentration0.300.27
season ppg0.951.32
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-6.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.208.60
skill v1-0.240.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age27.6425.92
state index-0.23-0.93
sterile dominance v1-0.110.77
threat rate (last 10)0.240.18
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40