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Chambly Thelle FC 1–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2020 · Wed, Jan 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win37%2.65
Chambly Thelle FC win33%2.92
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort +053%1.85
Chambly Thelle FC +047%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.71
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Ibrahima Sory Conté · Niort
29'⚽Bryan Passi · Niort
41'🟨Joris Correa · Chambly Thelle FC
67'🟨Darlin Yongwa · Niort
88'🟥Yacine Bourhane · Niort
89'⚽Maxence Derrien · Chambly Thelle FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots5
2On target2
9Corners3
16Fouls19
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChambly Thelle FCNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.580.52
cards avg (last 5)2.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach days—240.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-4.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.702.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.590.39
elo1440.701389.13
elo momentum (last 5)14.21-29.19
eye test v10.06-0.99
eye trend v1-0.010.05
first sub minute (last 10)58.0051.40
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.720.61
league points20.0026.00
league rank18.0012.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.006.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0066.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0039.60
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.320.44
season ppg0.951.24
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.008.60
skill v1-0.74-1.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.602.60
squad age27.4424.42
state index0.05-1.18
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.68
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40