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Caen 2–2 Toulouse FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Mon, Jan 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win41%2.37
Draw30%3.23
Caen win28%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen +0.2552%1.88
Toulouse FC +0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.79
Over46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Kelian Nsona · Caen
18'🟨Alexandre Mendy · Caen
18'⚽Alexandre Mendy · Caen
32'🟨Kelvin Amian · Toulouse FC
38'🟨Deiver Machado · Toulouse FC
40'🟨Yoann Court · Caen
45'⚽Bafodé Diakité · Toulouse FC
78'⚽Nathan N'Goumou · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
9Shots13
3On target5
2Corners8
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCaenToulouse FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.510.53
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Michel d'Ornano
coach days468.00224.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.403.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.262.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.10
dominance (last 5)0.410.61
elo1486.501537.33
elo momentum (last 5)-5.0245.64
eye test v1-0.461.76
eye trend v10.260.03
first sub minute (last 10)61.4065.50
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.701.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.760.68
league points28.0036.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank3.0012.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0054.60
rest days6.036.03
scorer concentration0.310.29
season ppg1.471.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.406.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.8018.20
skill v1-0.550.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.506.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.408.20
squad age26.1624.70
state index-0.460.95
sterile dominance v10.12-0.30
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.29
threat rate (last 5)0.180.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.802.60