⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Pau FC 1–3 Chambly Thelle FC

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Fri, Jan 8, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC win34%2.84
Pau FC win33%2.91
Draw33%2.97

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chambly Thelle FC +051%1.92
Pau FC +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Medhy Guezoui · Chambly Thelle FC
19'🟨Anthony Scaramozzino · Pau FC
47'⚽Joris Correa · Chambly Thelle FC
61'⚽Younn Zahary · Pau FC
64'🟨Xavier Kouassi · Pau FC
68'⚽Medhy Guezoui · Chambly Thelle FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots13
3On target6
8Corners3
12Fouls14
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPau FCChambly Thelle FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.31
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.20
box share (last 5)0.670.66
cards avg (last 5)2.002.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Municipal du Hameau
coach days191.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.542.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.15
dominance (last 5)0.270.53
elo1417.971433.03
elo momentum (last 5)-50.090.21
eye test v1-1.35-0.48
eye trend v10.030.56
first sub minute (last 10)58.8059.70
form points (last 5)1.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.70
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.30
keeper form v10.730.69
league points14.0017.00
league rank20.0016.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6069.00
possession avg (last 5)38.2041.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.310.31
season ppg0.740.89
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.601.60
shots for avg (last 5)6.2011.20
skill v1-1.46-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)6.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.603.60
squad age25.6928.42
state index-1.35-0.29
sterile dominance v1-0.25-1.01
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.31
threat rate (last 5)0.160.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00