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Nancy 2–2 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Fri, Jan 8, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mathieu Vernice, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win43%2.25
Draw33%2.99
Rodez win25%3.92

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy βˆ’0.2551%1.88
Rodez βˆ’0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Sega Coulibaly · Nancy
26'⚽Remy Boissier · Rodez
36'🟨Ogou Akichi · Nancy
62'🟨Remy Boissier · Rodez
66'🟨Julien Celestine · Rodez
70'⚽Vinni Triboulet · Nancy
79'🟨David Douline · Rodez
90'⚽ (og)Sega Coulibaly · Rodez

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots8
4On target4
3Corners5
21Fouls21
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.25
box share (last 5)0.570.46
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
coach days557.002018.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.350.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.602.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.10
dominance (last 5)0.380.44
elo1421.781394.21
elo momentum (last 5)-7.55-3.87
eye test v1-0.75-0.50
eye trend v10.29-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)58.0060.70
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.58β€”
league points17.0015.00
league rank18.0019.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet15.0018.00
matches since win0.0014.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0068.80
possession avg (last 5)45.6041.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.260.29
season ppg0.890.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2010.40
skill v1-0.83-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age26.0327.34
state index-0.69-1.05
sterile dominance v10.05-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.160.24
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.60