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Valenciennes 2–3 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2020 · Tue, Jan 5, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win38%2.59
Draw32%3.01
Nancy win30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes +055%1.76
Nancy +045%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.60
Over40%2.42

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · Valenciennes
52'⚽Kevin Cabral · Valenciennes
55'🟥Rosario Latouchent · Nancy
59'⚽Mickaël Biron · Nancy
74'🟨Metehan Güçlü · Valenciennes
77'⚽Kenny Rocha Santos · Nancy
90'🟥Maxime Spano · Valenciennes
90'⚽ (pen)Ousmane Cissokho · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots14
7On target6
6Corners3
18Fouls13
1Yellow cards0
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.670.49
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
coach days584.00554.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.33
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.20
dominance (last 5)0.480.41
elo1488.981407.93
elo momentum (last 5)10.17-20.97
eye test v1-0.63-1.03
eye trend v1-0.040.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.6059.00
form points (last 5)8.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.660.58
league points25.0014.00
league rank10.0020.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.0014.00
matches since win0.0010.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6071.80
possession avg (last 5)52.4048.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.380.24
season ppg1.390.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.807.40
skill v10.43-0.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.202.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.80
squad age25.7327.13
state index-0.02-1.27
sterile dominance v10.400.39
threat rate (last 10)0.220.18
threat rate (last 3)0.220.10
threat rate (last 5)0.230.15
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20