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Rodez 1–1 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Fri, Dec 18, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Romain Delpech, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win43%2.29
Draw30%3.14
Chateauroux win27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez βˆ’0.2550%1.93
Chateauroux βˆ’0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
28'🟨Valentin Henry · Rodez
47'🟨Remy Boissier · Rodez
54'🟨Jeremy Cordoval · Chateauroux
57'🟨Remi Mulumba · Chateauroux
62'⚽Remy Boissier · Rodez
68'⚽Razak Boukari · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots12
4On target4
3Corners7
17Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.580.51
cards avg (last 5)2.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days1997.002635.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.06
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.58
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.48
elo1394.081371.62
elo momentum (last 5)-7.49-18.89
eye test v1-0.29-0.17
eye trend v10.13-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)56.8059.70
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.100.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.61β€”
league points12.0012.00
league rank20.0021.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet15.009.00
matches since win11.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)42.6047.40
rest days6.046.04
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg0.750.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.8012.80
skill v1-0.87-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age25.8226.54
state index-1.02-0.98
sterile dominance v1-0.78-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.290.28
threat rate (last 3)0.270.33
threat rate (last 5)0.270.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.40