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Ajaccio 1–1 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Mon, Dec 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win43%2.30
Draw32%3.10
Le Havre AC win26%3.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio −0.2551%1.93
Le Havre AC −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.47
Over35%2.78

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Fernand Mayembo · Le Havre AC
39'🟨Qazim Laci · Ajaccio
40'⚽Pierre Gibaud · Le Havre AC
65'⚽ (pen)Gaëtan Courtet · Ajaccio
66'🟨Gaëtan Courtet · Ajaccio
66'🟨Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
66'🟥Hervé Bazile · Le Havre AC
68'🟨Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
84'🟨Mickaël Barreto · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots10
3On target7
7Corners2
18Fouls11
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.530.57
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François Coty
coach days159.00525.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-4.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.202.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.802.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.420.44
elo1449.981491.35
elo momentum (last 5)-0.87-37.55
eye test v1-0.10-0.71
eye trend v10.27-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)62.0059.80
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.650.64
league points13.0017.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.6047.00
rest days6.076.07
scorer concentration0.400.25
season ppg0.931.21
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.409.00
skill v1-0.52-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.00
squad age29.2927.29
state index-0.54-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.150.25
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.17
threat rate (last 5)0.220.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20