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Clermont 3–0 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Dec 5, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Gael Angoula, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win54%1.79
Draw28%3.48
Pau FC win18%5.31

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC βˆ’0.7552%1.85
Clermont βˆ’0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.22

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨David Gomis · Clermont
37'⚽Mohamed Bayo · Clermont
49'πŸŸ₯Anthony Scaramozzino Β· Pau FC
52'🟨Driss Trichard · Clermont
55'⚽Mohamed Bayo · Clermont
63'⚽Jim Allevinah · Clermont
83'🟨Quentin Daubin · Pau FC
89'🟨Mohamed Bayo · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
23Shots2
10On target0
9Corners2
13Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.34β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.29β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.30β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.05β€”
box share (last 5)0.54β€”
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
coach days3079.00157.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.12
dominance (last 5)0.620.46
elo1559.291468.06
elo momentum (last 5)5.876.70
eye test v10.27-0.56
eye trend v1-0.43-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.1061.80
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.30β€”
keeper form v1β€”0.74
league points20.0013.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6076.20
possession avg (last 5)56.6048.40
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.380.36
season ppg1.430.93
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6010.40
skill v10.99-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
squad age27.8927.31
state index0.42-0.15
sterile dominance v10.450.20
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00