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Amiens 1–0 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Tue, Dec 1, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Arnaud Baert, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win48%1.99
Draw30%3.17
Dunkerque win21%4.62

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque βˆ’0.551%1.90
Amiens βˆ’0.549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'⚽Stephen Odey · Amiens
23'🟨Emeric Dudouit · Dunkerque
34'🟨Ilan Kebbal · Dunkerque
67'🟨Loic Kouagba · Dunkerque
70'🟨Iron Gomis · Amiens
73'🟨Alexis Blin · Amiens
82'🟨Harouna Sy · Dunkerque

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
4Shots10
4On target3
2Corners7
21Fouls20
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15β€”
box share (last 5)0.650.52
cards avg (last 5)2.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade CrΓ©dit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days61.00214.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.781.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.40
elo1499.031490.93
elo momentum (last 5)-35.77-4.66
eye test v1-0.40-1.06
eye trend v10.170.69
first sub minute (last 10)57.6052.30
form points (last 5)1.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.15β€”
keeper form v10.780.78
league points12.0017.00
league rank19.0012.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8074.60
possession avg (last 5)42.4051.60
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentrationβ€”0.38
season ppg0.921.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.40-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.807.00
skill v1-1.36-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.20
squad age25.4927.30
state index-0.67-0.20
sterile dominance v1-1.020.85
threat rate (last 10)0.230.15
threat rate (last 3)0.240.15
threat rate (last 5)0.280.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20