← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Nov 28, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Remi Landry, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 |
| Valenciennes win | 21% | 4.69 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Valenciennes −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.93 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |