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Chambly Thelle FC 1–1 Toulouse FC

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Nov 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC win45%2.15
Draw29%3.31
Chambly Thelle FC win26%3.76

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Toulouse FC +0.2553%1.83
Chambly Thelle FC +0.2547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.70
Over44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Florian David · Chambly Thelle FC
31'🟨Manu Koné · Toulouse FC
56'⚽Janis Antiste · Toulouse FC
63'🟨Anthony Rouault · Toulouse FC
65'🟨Branco van den Boomen · Toulouse FC
74'⚽Lassana Doucoure · Chambly Thelle FC
86'🟨Kelvin Amian · Toulouse FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots9
5On target4
6Corners2
17Fouls28
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChambly Thelle FCToulouse FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.700.52
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
3.40
coach days—173.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.207.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.931.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.39
elo1423.031468.30
elo momentum (last 5)-27.8729.22
eye test v1-0.73-0.25
eye trend v10.270.22
first sub minute (last 10)43.5060.50
form points (last 5)2.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.680.68
league points7.0016.00
league rank21.009.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)41.0048.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.430.23
season ppg0.641.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.60
skill v1-1.03-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.00
squad age28.6624.43
state index-1.180.11
sterile dominance v1-0.560.20
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40