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Niort 1–2 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Nov 21, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bastien Dechepy, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win44%2.20
Draw31%3.24
Dunkerque win25%3.93

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort βˆ’0.2553%1.83
Dunkerque βˆ’0.2547%2.10

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.65
Over41%2.31

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Cheick Diarra · Dunkerque
14'⚽Ilan Kebbal · Dunkerque
45'⚽ (pen)Pape Ibnou Ba · Niort
72'🟨Bilal Boutobba · Niort
73'🟨Redouane Kerrouche · Dunkerque
88'🟨Pape Ibnou Ba · Niort

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
15Shots9
6On target4
6Corners5
16Fouls18
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
box share (last 5)0.480.47
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade RenΓ© Gaillard
coach days173.00204.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.802.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.891.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.06
dominance (last 5)0.460.47
elo1423.851483.67
elo momentum (last 5)6.91-13.83
eye test v10.19-1.44
eye trend v10.48-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)61.5055.50
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.35β€”
keeper form v10.680.65
league points17.0013.00
league rank7.0013.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0073.60
possession avg (last 5)47.6052.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.29β€”
season ppg1.891.30
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.408.40
skill v1-0.33-0.17
sot against avg (last 5)7.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.402.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.331.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.801.60
squad age23.7727.60
state index-0.12-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.490.62
threat rate (last 10)0.280.16
threat rate (last 3)0.340.12
threat rate (last 5)0.280.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20