⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Chateauroux 2–1 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Nov 21, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win38%2.59
Draw33%2.90
Chateauroux win29%3.42

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux +0.2555%1.77
Sochaux +0.2545%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.47
Over35%2.77

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Bryan Lasme · Sochaux
24'🟨Nama Fofana · Chateauroux
49'🟨Joseph Lopy · Sochaux
75'🟨Christopher Operi · Chateauroux
90'⚽Gilles Sunu · Chateauroux
90'⚽Alexis Goncalves Pereira · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots9
7On target3
7Corners5
11Fouls11
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.53
cards avg (last 5)2.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston Petit
coach days2608.00721.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.791.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.540.45
elo1390.511449.56
elo momentum (last 5)-17.52-16.71
eye test v10.31-0.39
eye trend v10.200.10
first sub minute (last 10)54.1060.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.710.64
league points8.0017.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)49.6050.80
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.250.55
season ppg0.801.55
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8011.40
skill v1-0.00-0.13
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
squad age26.0126.17
state index-0.69-0.50
sterile dominance v1-0.280.18
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.40