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Dunkerque 0–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Nov 7, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win46%2.14
Draw31%3.14
Dunkerque win23%4.20

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque +0.554%1.77
Paris FC +0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.51
Over36%2.65

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Warren Caddy · Paris FC
19'🟨Leverton Pierre · Dunkerque
44'🟨Ali Abdi · Paris FC
90'🟨Ali Abdi · Paris FC
90'πŸŸ₯Ali Abdi Β· Paris FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots13
2On target4
4Corners2
14Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunkerqueParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.36
blown lead rate (last 20)β€”0.05
box share (last 5)0.500.70
cards avg (last 5)2.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Tribut
coach days190.00311.00
comeback rate (last 20)β€”0.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)β€”1.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.61
elo1494.401529.06
elo momentum (last 5)-12.6245.09
eye test v1-1.620.13
eye trend v1-0.04-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)59.7856.30
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)β€”1.03
h2 goals (last 10)β€”1.10
ht lead rate (last 20)β€”0.35
keeper form v10.790.73
league points13.0022.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4055.80
rest days7.007.17
scorer concentrationβ€”0.25
season ppg1.442.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2012.20
skill v1-0.550.89
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.404.40
squad age27.6929.00
state index-0.150.86
sterile dominance v10.350.72
threat rate (last 10)0.160.22
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.22
venue ppg (last 5)β€”2.20