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Sochaux 3–4 Niort

← Ligue 2 2020 · Sat, Nov 7, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win44%2.19
Draw31%3.10
Niort win25%3.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux −0.2552%1.85
Niort −0.2548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.52
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Bilal Boutobba · Niort
29'⚽Dylan Louiserre · Niort
32'⚽ (pen)Bryan Lasme · Sochaux
45'🟨Lenny Vallier · Niort
62'🟨Christophe Diedhiou · Sochaux
66'⚽Pape Ibnou Ba · Niort
68'⚽Dylan Louiserre · Niort
79'⚽Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
84'⚽Gaetan Weissbeck · Sochaux
89'🟨Joseph Mendes · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
17Shots15
5On target6
7Corners1
16Fouls20
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.560.49
cards avg (last 5)3.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Bonal
coach days707.00159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.341.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.47
elo1462.671410.73
elo momentum (last 5)-1.859.06
eye test v1-0.63-0.02
eye trend v10.170.21
first sub minute (last 10)60.1059.30
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.710.74
league points17.0014.00
league rank4.0010.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4047.60
rest days7.0014.04
scorer concentration0.440.30
season ppg1.701.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.60-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.8013.20
skill v1-0.36-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.607.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age26.4723.81
state index-0.21-0.22
sterile dominance v10.17-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.20