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Chambly Thelle FC 0–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Oct 31, 06:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque win35%2.94
Draw34%3.00
Chambly Thelle FC win31%3.12

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque +052%1.88
Chambly Thelle FC +048%2.01

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.50
Over37%2.71

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Randi Goteni · Dunkerque
21'🟨Vlatko Stojanovski · Chambly Thelle FC
26'🟨Emeric Dudouit · Dunkerque
42'🟨Harouna Sy · Dunkerque
43'🟨Jonathan Beaulieu · Chambly Thelle FC
45'🟨Redouane Kerrouche · Dunkerque
58'⚽ (pen)Emeric Dudouit · Dunkerque
67'πŸŸ₯Maxence Derrien Β· Chambly Thelle FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots4
0On target1
2Corners2
18Fouls12
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChambly Thelle FCDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.10β€”
box share (last 5)0.620.54
cards avg (last 5)1.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Pierre Brisson
coach daysβ€”183.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.10β€”
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.23β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.42
elo1420.601484.51
elo momentum (last 5)-27.65-32.99
eye test v1-0.23-1.44
eye trend v10.360.03
first sub minute (last 10)43.1061.50
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.94β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.50β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.25β€”
keeper form v1β€”0.79
league points5.0010.00
league rank21.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4073.00
possession avg (last 5)40.2051.20
rest days7.047.04
scorer concentration0.40β€”
season ppg0.631.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.208.60
skill v1-0.97-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.13
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.001.60
squad age27.1826.84
state index-0.88-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.730.49
threat rate (last 10)0.200.17
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.80β€”