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Clermont 3–0 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Oct 3, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win52%1.83
Draw29%3.39
Rodez win19%5.22

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez βˆ’0.7554%1.79
Clermont βˆ’0.7546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.63
Over40%2.36

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Valentin Henry · Rodez
5'⚽Yohann Magnin · Clermont
18'🟨Aurelien Tertereau · Rodez
39'🟨Yohan Roche · Rodez
44'⚽Jim Allevinah · Clermont
63'🟨David Douline · Rodez
68'🟨Akim Zedadka · Clermont
84'🟨Malaly Dembele · Rodez
88'🟨Alidu Seidu · Clermont
90'🟨Alan Kerouedan · Rodez
90'⚽Mohamed Bayo

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
19Shots13
8On target3
3Corners12
10Fouls18
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.67
cards avg (last 5)1.602.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
Β· Clermont
coach days3016.001921.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.15
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.580.41
elo1551.001451.32
elo momentum (last 5)-13.035.05
eye test v1-0.09-0.50
eye trend v10.220.19
first sub minute (last 10)63.0067.00
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1β€”0.68
league points6.008.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8074.00
possession avg (last 5)55.6049.00
rest days4.937.00
scorer concentrationβ€”0.33
season ppg1.001.60
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.808.40
skill v10.95-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age26.7726.19
state index-0.03-0.27
sterile dominance v10.680.36
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.240.21
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40