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Rodez 2–1 Dunkerque

← Ligue 2 2020 Β· Sat, Sep 26, 05:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Remi Landry, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rodez win38%2.60
Draw33%3.00
Dunkerque win29%3.43

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunkerque βˆ’0.2556%1.77
Rodez βˆ’0.2544%2.16

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.50
Over36%2.69

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Malaly Dembele · Rodez
30'🟨David Douline · Rodez
43'🟨Yohan Roche · Rodez
50'⚽ (pen)Billy Ketkeophomphone · Dunkerque
73'🟨Remy Boissier · Rodez
73'🟨Billy Ketkeophomphone · Dunkerque
74'🟨Emeric Dudouit · Dunkerque
82'⚽Ugo Bonnet · Rodez

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots6
7On target2
1Corners2
22Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRodezDunkerque
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.34β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.15β€”
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)2.80β€”
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Paul Lignon
coach days1914.00148.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.00β€”
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.17β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80β€”
corners against avg (last 5)6.00β€”
corners for avg (last 5)4.20β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.27β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.10β€”
dominance (last 5)0.32β€”
elo1440.841517.50
elo momentum (last 5)4.91β€”
eye test v1-0.68-0.83
eye trend v1-0.00β€”
first sub minute (last 10)68.1066.33
form points (last 5)8.00β€”
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20β€”
goals against avg (last 5)1.40β€”
goals for avg (last 5)1.20β€”
goals volatility (last 10)0.82β€”
h2 goals (last 10)0.70β€”
ht lead rate (last 20)0.20β€”
keeper form v10.67β€”
league points5.007.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6071.33
possession avg (last 5)47.8036.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.252.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.60β€”
shots for avg (last 5)7.20β€”
skill v1-0.55-1.45
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.40β€”
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.00
squad age26.6525.97
state index-0.450.16
sterile dominance v10.40-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.18β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.160.18
threat rate (last 5)0.160.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.40β€”