← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, May 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck win | 52% | 1.91 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 25% | 3.90 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.14 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck +0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.49 |
| Under | 36% | 2.69 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Sebastian Kerk · VfL Osnabruck |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 76' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ben Zolinski · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Baumann · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 661.00 | 83.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1425.78 | 1365.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.26 | 18.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 41.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | -1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.33 | 28.19 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |