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Greuther Furth 3–2 Fortuna Dusseldorf

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, May 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win62%1.57
Draw21%4.69
Fortuna Dusseldorf win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −151%1.90
Fortuna Dusseldorf −149%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over72%1.35
Under28%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Dusseldorf
26'⚽Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Dusseldorf
43'🟨Luka Krajnc · Fortuna Dusseldorf
44'🟨Anton Stach · Greuther Furth
45'🟥Anton Stach · Greuther Furth
53'⚽ (pen)Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
56'⚽Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf
64'🟨Matthias Zimmermann · Fortuna Dusseldorf
69'⚽Julian Green · Greuther Furth
83'⚽Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth
84'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots4
8On target3
5Corners4
12Fouls12
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthFortuna Dusseldorf
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.670.84
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
🟨
Dickson Abiama · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Hans Nunoo Sarpei · Greuther Furth
1.20
coach days842.00508.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.253.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.11
dominance (last 5)0.660.63
elo1576.651573.31
elo momentum (last 5)14.738.13
eye test v10.850.88
eye trend v1-0.01-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)60.5059.40
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.630.70
league points61.0056.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank12.007.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0078.20
possession avg (last 5)55.8047.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.200.15
season ppg1.851.70
shot diff avg (last 5)6.805.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0014.80
skill v10.70-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.806.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.80
squad age25.4426.10
state index0.580.50
sterile dominance v10.17-0.89
threat rate (last 10)0.260.35
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.280.35
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40