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Regensburg 3–0 FC St. Pauli 1910

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, May 23, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win42%2.35
FC St. Pauli 1910 win30%3.25
Draw27%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.2552%1.87
Regensburg −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.53
Under37%2.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Jann George · Regensburg
22'🟨Daniel Buballa · FC St. Pauli 1910
44'⚽Andreas Albers · Regensburg
48'🟨Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910
64'⚽Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg
82'🟨Daniel Buballa · FC St. Pauli 1910
82'🟥Daniel Buballa · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
22Shots3
8On target2
4Corners3
10Fouls10
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgFC St. Pauli 1910
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.510.57
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
2.00
coach days1422.00326.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.881.66
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.14
dominance (last 5)0.410.56
elo1395.091473.43
elo momentum (last 5)-32.93-14.47
eye test v1-0.540.21
eye trend v1-0.42-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)56.3062.20
form points (last 5)1.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.43
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.45
keeper form v10.660.59
league points35.0047.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win6.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8079.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6056.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.340.22
season ppg1.061.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.000.80
shots for avg (last 5)9.8012.80
skill v1-0.820.65
sot against avg (last 5)7.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
squad age26.4026.35
state index-1.28-0.26
sterile dominance v1-0.520.45
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40