← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Thu, May 13, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 57% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.01 |
| Regensburg win | 19% | 5.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Regensburg −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 30' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
| 75' | ⚽ | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | 🟨 | Albion Vrenezi · Regensburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 88' | 🟨 | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 620.00 | 1412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1580.48 | 1411.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.31 | -22.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 59.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 4.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.83 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |