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Hamburger SV 5–2 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Mon, May 10, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Zwayer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win59%1.66
Draw23%4.33
Nurnberg win19%5.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nurnberg −154%1.80
Hamburger SV −146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.44

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Josha Vagnoman · Hamburger SV
30'⚽Robin Meißner · Hamburger SV
36'⚽Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
41'⚽Erik Shuranov · Nurnberg
45'⚽Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV
75'⚽Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
80'⚽ (pen)Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV
89'⚽Linus Rosenlocher · Nurnberg

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
13Shots13
7On target5
6Corners5
8Fouls10
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)3.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
coach days313.00313.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.451.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.540.61
elo1553.251463.91
elo momentum (last 5)-34.3939.20
eye test v10.680.42
eye trend v1-0.13-0.06
first sub minute (last 10)56.2064.60
form points (last 5)3.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.650.67
league points52.0040.00
league rank5.0012.00
matches since blank8.008.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2073.40
possession avg (last 5)58.8044.60
rest days11.0813.08
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg1.681.29
shot diff avg (last 5)2.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0015.20
skill v10.73-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.20
squad age27.7525.47
state index-0.400.40
sterile dominance v10.44-1.05
threat rate (last 10)0.240.33
threat rate (last 3)0.220.31
threat rate (last 5)0.260.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60