← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, May 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 47% | 2.10 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 28% | 3.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.96 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.49 |
| Under | 35% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 4' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 10' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sebastian Schonlau · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Chris Führich · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Martin Männel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 56' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 13 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 59' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | ⚽ | Christopher Antwi-Adjei · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 82' | ⚽ | Chadrac Akolo · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 647.00 | 1499.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1454.92 | 1508.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.59 | 13.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.55 |
| league points | 41.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 12.81 | 15.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 25.50 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |