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Bochum 5–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, May 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win62%1.56
Draw22%4.42
Regensburg win16%6.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum −152%1.90
Regensburg −148%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.54
Under37%2.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Scott Kennedy · Regensburg
26'⚽Andreas Albers · Regensburg
29'⚽Robert Tesche · Bochum
38'⚽ (og)Jan-Niklas Beste · Bochum
53'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
59'🟥Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
61'⚽Gerrit Holtmann · Bochum
78'⚽Robert Žulj · Bochum
90'⚽ (pen)Silvère Ganvoula · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
13Shots3
8On target2
5Corners1
11Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.56
cards avg (last 5)1.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days616.001408.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.993.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.11
dominance (last 5)0.450.47
elo1575.561420.27
elo momentum (last 5)-5.32-14.63
eye test v1-0.290.21
eye trend v1-0.14-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)55.5057.90
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.500.75
league points60.0035.00
league rank1.0014.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2070.80
possession avg (last 5)57.4047.40
rest days12.7114.00
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg1.941.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.0012.60
skill v10.55-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
squad age28.4225.66
state index0.08-0.65
sterile dominance v10.71-0.74
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.00