← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, May 7, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.35 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ahmet Arslan · Holstein Kiel |
| 21' | ⚽ | Ahmet Arslan · Holstein Kiel |
| 24' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 49' | ⚽ | Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel |
| 55' | 🟨 | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 614.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1562.60 | 1498.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.81 | 38.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| league points | 53.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 12.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.31 | 26.17 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |