← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Mon, May 3, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 55% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
| Karlsruhe win | 21% | 4.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Kevin Danso · Karlsruhe |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Dawid Kownacki · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe |
| 67' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 73' | ⚽ | Brandon Borrello · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Luka Krajnc · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dejan Galjen · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shinta Karl Appelkamp · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 488.00 | 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.62 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1564.41 | 1475.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.25 | -16.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.77 |
| league points | 49.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 4.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.46 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |