← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Thu, Apr 29, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 64% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.67 |
| Karlsruhe win | 14% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −1.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Khaled Narey · Hamburger SV |
| 55' | 🟨 | Babacar Guèye · Karlsruhe |
| 56' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV |
| 57' | ⚽ | Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 89' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 302.00 | 453.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1557.22 | 1471.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.52 | -24.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| league points | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 4.21 | 3.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.97 | 26.54 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |