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Greuther Furth 3–2 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Wed, Apr 28, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Schmidt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth win56%1.75
Draw24%4.00
SV Sandhausen win20%5.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.7550%1.95
SV Sandhausen −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Hans Nunoo Sarpei · Greuther Furth
36'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · SV Sandhausen
45'🟨Julius Biada · SV Sandhausen
48'🟨Sascha Burchert · Greuther Furth
52'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · SV Sandhausen
55'🟨Janik Bachmann · SV Sandhausen
63'🟨Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
72'🟨Paul Seguin · Greuther Furth
77'⚽ (og)Aleksandr Zhirov · Greuther Furth
86'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots11
4On target7
3Corners6
11Fouls14
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.640.64
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.40
coach days817.0086.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.841.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.06
dominance (last 5)0.600.48
elo1559.741423.06
elo momentum (last 5)3.1729.82
eye test v10.80-0.02
eye trend v10.520.91
first sub minute (last 10)60.6061.10
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.720.77
league points54.0031.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank9.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4070.40
possession avg (last 5)58.2047.40
rest days3.213.21
scorer concentration0.190.30
season ppg1.801.07
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.6013.80
skill v10.98-0.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)7.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.004.60
squad age25.2628.96
state index0.40-0.11
sterile dominance v10.71-0.72
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.270.36
threat rate (last 5)0.230.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.00