← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Tue, Apr 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 36% | 2.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Enrico Valentini · Nurnberg |
| 31' | ⚽ | Dennis Borkowski · Nurnberg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 67' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 86' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 300.00 | 604.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1462.96 | 1556.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.37 | -0.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.16 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 26.96 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.56 | 1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |