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SV Sandhausen 4–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Apr 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win39%2.50
SV Sandhausen win33%3.00
Draw28%3.65

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover +054%1.81
SV Sandhausen +046%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.29

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Emanuel Taffertshofer · SV Sandhausen
25'🟨Josip Elez · Hannover
25'⚽Julius Biada · SV Sandhausen
41'🟨Erik Zenga · SV Sandhausen
42'⚽Florent Muslija · Hannover
53'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
58'🟨Gerrit Nauber · SV Sandhausen
63'⚽Valmir Sulejmani · Hannover
68'🟨Simon Falette · Hannover
68'⚽ (pen)Kevin Behrens · SV Sandhausen
81'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots22
10On target6
4Corners3
15Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.49
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.660.62
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
Daniel Keita-Ruel
· SV Sandhausen
84'🟨Niklas Hult · Hannover
90'🟨Barış Başdaş · Hannover
90'⚽Kevin Behrens · SV Sandhausen
coach days83.00541.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.24
dominance (last 5)0.490.51
elo1406.761496.92
elo momentum (last 5)5.20-29.23
eye test v1-0.890.73
eye trend v10.500.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.3061.50
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.760.61
league points28.0039.00
league rank16.0012.00
matches since blank2.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)49.4057.20
rest days2.713.79
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg1.001.34
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6012.00
skill v1-0.710.64
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.80
squad age28.9527.90
state index-0.10-0.57
sterile dominance v1-0.380.65
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.320.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80