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VfL Osnabruck 1–3 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sat, Apr 24, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: B. Cortus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Holstein Kiel win54%1.81
Draw26%3.86
VfL Osnabruck win21%4.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck +0.7552%1.86
Holstein Kiel +0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.92
Under49%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel
23'⚽ (og)Bashkim Ajdini · Holstein Kiel
43'🟨Jannik Dehm · Holstein Kiel
45'⚽Fin Bartels · Holstein Kiel
53'⚽Sebastian Kerk · VfL Osnabruck
68'🟨Timo Beermann · VfL Osnabruck
80'🟨Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel
82'🟨Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel
90'🟨Bryan Henning · VfL Osnabruck

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score3
9Shots8
2On target3
6Corners3
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfL OsnabruckHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.470.73
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBremer Brücke
0.80
coach days54.00601.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d5.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.00
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.282.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.10
dominance (last 5)0.390.45
elo1342.461547.17
elo momentum (last 5)-19.85-18.20
eye test v1-0.980.01
eye trend v10.39-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)45.8055.50
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.670.73
league points27.0046.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)43.2057.80
rest days2.7717.77
scorer concentration0.220.24
season ppg0.901.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)8.2010.40
skill v1-0.970.83
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.604.00
squad age28.7527.55
state index-1.36-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.181.14
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.15
threat rate (last 5)0.190.17
venue ppg (last 5)0.000.80