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SV Sandhausen 2–1 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Thu, Apr 22, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win59%1.65
Draw24%4.15
SV Sandhausen win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen +154%1.81
Hamburger SV +146%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

41'🟨Simon Terodde · Hamburger SV
46'⚽ (og)Stephan Kofi Ambrosius · SV Sandhausen
51'⚽Daniel Keita-Ruel · SV Sandhausen
68'🟨Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV
71'🟨Amadou Onana · Hamburger SV
76'⚽Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Khaled Narey · Hamburger SV

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots11
6On target4
7Corners6
13Fouls11
0Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.57
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
2.20
coach days80.00295.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.606.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.16
dominance (last 5)0.490.63
elo1393.451572.83
elo momentum (last 5)6.1912.86
eye test v1-1.020.71
eye trend v1-0.140.10
first sub minute (last 10)57.7058.20
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.770.65
league points25.0050.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4077.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6053.60
rest days18.2913.08
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg0.931.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.606.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4015.40
skill v1-0.460.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.405.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.80
squad age28.8127.51
state index-0.000.33
sterile dominance v10.03-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00