← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Tue, Apr 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Gräfe
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Erik Shuranov · Nurnberg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Robin Hack · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 628.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1448.03 | 1434.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.28 | 4.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 37.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 10.23 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 26.45 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |