← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Wed, Apr 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 39% | 2.45 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 31% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Regensburg +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Lukas Gugganig · VfL Osnabruck |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alexander Meyer · Regensburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | David Otto · Regensburg |
| 83' | 🟥 | Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Timo Beermann · VfL Osnabruck |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| coach days | 44.00 | 1383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1356.71 | 1434.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.19 | -15.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 10.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.45 | 26.20 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |