← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Fri, Apr 9, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.20 |
| Darmstadt win | 21% | 4.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Hamburger SV |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Erich Berko · Darmstadt |
| 49' | 🟨 | Victor Pálsson · Darmstadt |
| 51' | ⚽ | Erich Berko · Darmstadt |
| 60' | ⚽ | Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 79' | 🟨 | Stephan Kofi Ambrosius · Hamburger SV |
| 87' | 🟨 | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 282.00 | 282.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1587.59 | 1467.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.95 | 6.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 70.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.73 |
| league points | 50.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 27.22 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |