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SV Sandhausen 1–0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 Β· Sun, Apr 4, 11:30 AM UTC Β· ref: B. Cortus

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win49%1.98
Draw27%3.59
FC Wurzburger Kickers win24%4.08

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Wurzburger Kickers βˆ’0.550%1.93
SV Sandhausen βˆ’0.550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Christian Strohdiek · FC Wurzburger Kickers
43'🟨Frank Ronstadt · FC Wurzburger Kickers
44'⚽ (pen)Kevin Behrens · SV Sandhausen
56'🟨Diego Contento · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots8
7On target1
3Corners3
18Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenFC Wurzburger Kickers
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.040.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.120.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.650.46
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
0.20
coach days62.003.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.421.43
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.38
elo1386.361342.39
elo momentum (last 5)-6.46-0.19
eye test v1-1.35-0.64
eye trend v1-0.62-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)59.0066.10
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.750.70
league points22.0016.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.6068.80
possession avg (last 5)50.4041.40
rest days14.9813.96
scorer concentration0.260.32
season ppg0.850.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.009.60
skill v1-0.71-1.28
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)0.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.803.20
squad age28.3528.48
state index-0.38-0.92
sterile dominance v1-0.20-0.67
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00