← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Apr 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 43% | 2.28 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 3.44 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Regensburg −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ognjen Gnjatic · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | 🟨 | John-Patrick Strauss · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1373.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1434.90 | 1464.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.17 | 0.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.18 | 29.65 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |