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Regensburg 1–1 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2020 · Sun, Apr 4, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win43%2.28
Erzgebirge AUE win29%3.44
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE −0.2550%1.95
Regensburg −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.86
Over48%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Jann George · Regensburg
69'🟨Ognjen Gnjatic · Erzgebirge AUE
79'🟨John-Patrick Strauss · Erzgebirge AUE
85'⚽Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE
90'🟨Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
22Shots11
10On target4
5Corners2
11Fouls11
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRegensburgErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.610.56
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJahnstadion Regensburg
1.40
coach days1373.00612.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.951.69
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.08
dominance (last 5)0.460.45
elo1434.901464.51
elo momentum (last 5)-13.170.42
eye test v1-0.320.13
eye trend v10.000.06
first sub minute (last 10)56.5060.20
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.790.72
league points30.0036.00
league rank14.009.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2070.40
possession avg (last 5)50.8046.40
rest days13.9614.98
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg1.201.38
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.2012.20
skill v1-0.44-0.81
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age26.1829.65
state index-0.39-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60